Take Profit On Trend (by BHD_Trade_Bot)The purpose of strategy is to detect long-term uptrend and short-term downtrend so that you can easy to take profit.
The strategy also using BHD unit to detect how big you win and lose, so that you can use this strategy for all coins without worry about it have different percentage of price change.
ENTRY
The buy order is placed on assets that have long-term uptrend and short-term downtrend:
- Long-term uptrend condition: ema200 is going up (rsi200 greater than 51)
- Short-term downtrend condition: 2 last candles are down price (use candlestick for less delay)
CLOSE
The sell order is placed when take profit or stop loss:
- Take profit: price increase 1 BHD unit
- Stop loss: price decrease 2 BHD units
The strategy use $15 and trading fee is 0.1% for each order. So that, in the real-life, if you are using trade bot, it will need $1500 for trading 100 coins at the same time.
Pro tip : The 1-hour time frame for altcoin/USDT has the best results on average.
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "stop loss"
Zendog V2 backtest DCA bot 3commasHi everyone,
After a few iterations and additional implemented features this version of the Backtester is now open source.
The Strategy is a Backtester for 3commas DCA bots. The main usage scenario is to plugin your external indicator, and backtest it using different DCA settings.
Before using this script please make sure you read these explanations and make sure you understand how it works.
Features:
- Because of Tradingview limitations on how orders are grouped into Trades, this Strategy statistics are calculated by the script, so please ignore the Strategy Tester statistics completely
Statistics Table explained:
- Status: either all deals are closed or there is a deal still running, in which case additional info
is provided below, as when the deal started, current PnL, current SO
- Finished deals: Total number of closed deals both Winning and Losing.
A deal is comprised as the Base Order (BO) + all Safety Orders (SO) related to that deal, so this number
will be different than the Strategy Tester List of Trades
- Winning Deals: Deal ended in profit
- Losing deals: Deals ended with loss due to Stop Loss. In the future I might add a Deal Stop condition to
the script, so that will count towards this number as well.
- Total days ( Max / Avg days in Deal ):
Total Days in the Backtest given by either Tradingview limitation on the number of candles or by the
config of the script regarding "Limit Date Range".
Max Days spent in a deal + which period this happened.
Avg days spent in a deal.
- Required capital: This is the total capital required to run the Backtester and it is automatically calculated by
the script taking into consideration BO size, SO size, SO volume scale. This should be the same as 3commas.
This number overwrites strategy.initial_capital and is used to calculate Profit and other stats, so you don't need
to update strategy.initial_capital every time you change BO/SO settings
- Profit after commission
- Buy and Hold return: The PnL that could have been obtained by buying at the close of the first candle of the
backtester and selling at the last.
- Covered deviation: The % of price move from initial BO order covered by SO settings
- Max Deviation: Biggest market % price move vs BO price, in the other direction (for long
is down, for short it is up)
- Max Drawdown: Biggest market % price move vs Avg price of the whole Trade (BO + any SO), in the other
direction (for long price goes down, for short it goes up)
This is calculated for the whole Trade so it is different than List of Trades
- Max / Avg bars in deal
- Total volume / Commission calculated by the strategy. For correct commission please set Commission in the
Inputs Tab and you may ignore Properties Tab
- Close stats for deals: This is a list of how many Trades were closed at each step, including Stop Loss (if
configured), together with covered deviation for that step, the number of deals, and the percentage of this
number from all the deals
TODO: Might add deal avg value for each step
- Settings Table that can be enabled / disabled just to have an overview of your configs on the chart, this is a
drawn on bottom left
- Steps Table similar to 3commas, this is also drawn on bottom left, so please disable Settings table if you want
to see this one
TODO: Might add extra stats here
- Deal start condition: built in RSI-7 or plugin any external indicator and compare with any value the indicator plots
(main purpose of this strategy is to connect your own studies, so using external indicator is recommended)
- Base order and safety orders configs similar to 3commas (order size, percent deviation, safety orders,
percent scale and volume scale)
- Long and Short
- Stop Loss
- Support for Take profit from base order or from Total volume of the deal
- Configs help (besides self explanatory):
- Chart theme: Adjust according to the theme you run on. There is no way to detect theme at the moment.
This adjust different colors
- Deal Start Type: Either a builtin RSI7 or "External indicator"
- Indicator Source an value: If using External Indicator then select source, comparison and value.
For example you could start a deal when Volume is greater than xxxx, or code a custom indicator that plots
different values based on your conditions and test those values
- Visuals / Decimals for display: Adjust according to your symbol
- BO Entry Price for steps table: This is the BO start deal price used to calculate the steps in the table
M8 BUY @ END OF DAYI've read a couple of times at a couple of different places that most of the move in the market happens after hours, meaning during non-standard trading hours.
After-market and pre-market hours and have seen data presented showing that systems which bought just before end normal market hours and sold the next morning had really amazing resutls.
But when testing those I found the results to be quite poor compared to the pretty graphs I saw, and after much tweaking and trying different ideas I gave up on the idea until I recently decided to try a new position management system.
The System
Buys at the end of the trading day before the close
Sells the next morning at the open IF THE CLOSE OF THE CURRENT BAR IS HIGHER THAN THE ENTRY PRICE
When the current price is not higher, the system will keep the position open until it EITHER gets stops out or closes on profit <<< this is WHY it has the high win %
The system has a high win ratio because it will keep that one position open until it either reaches profit or stops out
This "system" of waiting, and keeping the trade open, actually turned out to be a fantastic way to kind of put the complete trading strategy in a kind of limbo mode. It either waits for market failure or for a profit.
I don't really care about win % at all, almost always high win % ratio systems are just nonsense. What I look for is a PF -- profit factor of 1.5 or above, and a relatively smooth equity curve. -- This has both.
The Stop Loss setting is set @ .95, meaning a 5% stop loss. The Red Line on the chart is the stop loss line.
There is no set profit target -- it simply takes what the market gives.
Non-Repainting System
This does use a 200D Simple Moving Average as a filter. Like a Green Light / Red Light traffic light, the system will only trade long when the price is above its 200 Moving average.
Here is the code: "F1 = close > sma(security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", close ), MarketFilterLen) // HIGH OF OLD DATA -- SO NO REPAINTING"
I use "close ", so that's data from two days ago, it's fixed, confirmed, non-repainting data from the higher timeframe.
-- I would only suggest using this on direction tickers like SPY, QQQ, SSO, TQQQ, market sectors with additional filters in place.
Average Band by HarmanUsually, Moving Averages (Simple & Exponential) consider "close" of each candle to form a line for a particular period. In this indicator, we have considered all the parameters (Open, Close, Low & High) of each candle to form a Band or a wave which act as a zone to provide support & resistance. It works well on all the time frames. It perfectly works on lower time frames of 15 min & 5 min for intraday trades and even for scalping. There is a line that moves very near to candles known as "Candle Line" provide support & resistance to each individual candle and a leading line which moves ahead also acts as support & resistance and helps in determining trend direction.
How to use the indicator ?
Indicator consists of 3 components :
1) A Band or wave of 3 lines (upper, middle & lower line)
2) A "Candle Line" which moves along with the candles
3) A Leading line which moves ahead of the candles
Method 1 : When candles are being formed above the candle line (line near to candles) and it crosses the band or wave from below to upside, then long trade can be initiated. Similarly, When candles are being formed below the Candle line and it crosses the band or wave from upside then short trade can be initiated. Stop loss can be maintained below the band for Long trade and above the band for short trade. Candle line can be used to trail the stop loss.
Method 2: If candles moves above and below of the band very often and frequently and candle line is in the middle of candles then it is NO TRADING ZONE. If you still want to trade, then select a higher time frame and check the price movement. If there is a stability in the higher time frame, then take the trade in the higher timeframe with stable movement.
Method 3 : Candle line acts as "First line of Defence". In a uptrend, all the candles are formed above the candle line and in case of down trend, all the candles are formed below the candle line. When a newly formed candle cross the candle line then you can book profit. For Example : In uptrend , candles are being formed above the line, when a new candle started forming below the line and when the complete candle is formed below the line, profit can be booked. Vice-versa in case of downtrend.
Method 4: Direction of leading line, band and candle line helps in determining the trend. If all these three components are in upward direction, price trend is upward and if all these three components are in downward direction, then price trend is downward. When, leading line and band cross each other from opposite direction for consecutive 2-3 times, then price movement is sideways.
Method 5 : Thickness of band play an important role in determining price action. If band is narrow, it means small candles are being formed and no any huge price movement is observed in this period. When band started expanding, it signifies that big candles are begin to form and there is a more price movement than before. Similarly, If contraction of band started, it means that small candles are being formed and there is low price movement as compared to the price movement when Band was expanded. If Band is expanded (wider) and volumes are high, It means the Band will act as strong Support or Resistance than usual. In case, candles and candle line cross the expanded Band, you can enter the Long or Short trade.
Method 6: When the Band, leading line and candle line collides or meet at a single point, then it is either strong support or resistance.
Method 7 : Usage in Scalping : Select the shorter time frame of 1 min or 5 min. If the candles are crossing the band very frequently in 1 min, then select 5 min time frame or wait for few minutes for stability. Now, when candles started forming above the candle line and it crosses the band from below then take a long position and book profit after few candles above the band. Place stop loss below the Band. Similarly, when candles started forming below the candle line and it crosses the band from above, then enter into short trade and book profit after few candles. Place stop loss above the band in the case of short trade.
You can combine above methods to give a sharp edge to your trade and increase the probability of your winning in the trade.
Indicator Settings : Default period selected is 50 for both the Band and leading line. You can change the period to 26 or 100 or 200. Select the period and check the chart, if the indicator looks fine and smooth, then you can use your settings. For most of the time, default settings work perfectly.
Proudly Developed by :
Harmandeep Singh
Graduate in Computer Science with Physics & Mathematics
MBA in Business Marketing and Finance
Experienced Computer programmer & Software developer
Stock Market & Crypto Trader
Ultimate Strategy TemplateHello Traders
As most of you know, I'm a member of the PineCoders community and I sometimes take freelance pine coding jobs for TradingView users.
Off the top of my head, users often want to:
- convert an indicator into a strategy, so as to get the backtesting statistics from TradingView
- add alerts to their indicator/strategy
- develop a generic strategy template which can be plugged into (almost) any indicator
My gift for the community today is my Ultimate Strategy Template
Step 1: Create your connector
Adapt your indicator with only 2 lines of code and then connect it to this strategy template.
For doing so:
1) Find in your indicator where are the conditions printing the long/buy and short/sell signals.
2) Create an additional plot as below
I'm giving an example with a Two moving averages cross.
Please replicate the same methodology for your indicator wether it's a MACD, ZigZag, Pivots, higher-highs, lower-lows or whatever indicator with clear buy and sell conditions
//@version=4
study(title='Moving Average Cross', shorttitle='Moving Average Cross', overlay=true, precision=6, max_labels_count=500, max_lines_count=500)
type_ma1 = input(title="MA1 type", defval="SMA", options= )
length_ma1 = input(10, title = " MA1 length", type=input.integer)
type_ma2 = input(title="MA2 type", defval="SMA", options= )
length_ma2 = input(100, title = " MA2 length", type=input.integer)
// MA
f_ma(smoothing, src, length) =>
iff(smoothing == "RMA", rma(src, length),
iff(smoothing == "SMA", sma(src, length),
iff(smoothing == "EMA", ema(src, length), src)))
MA1 = f_ma(type_ma1, close, length_ma1)
MA2 = f_ma(type_ma2, close, length_ma2)
// buy and sell conditions
buy = crossover(MA1, MA2)
sell = crossunder(MA1, MA2)
plot(MA1, color=color_ma1, title="Plot MA1", linewidth=3)
plot(MA2, color=color_ma2, title="Plot MA2", linewidth=3)
plotshape(buy, title='LONG SIGNAL', style=shape.circle, location=location.belowbar, color=color_ma1, size=size.normal)
plotshape(sell, title='SHORT SIGNAL', style=shape.circle, location=location.abovebar, color=color_ma2, size=size.normal)
/////////////////////////// SIGNAL FOR STRATEGY /////////////////////////
Signal = buy ? 1 : sell ? -1 : 0
plot(Signal, title="🔌Connector🔌", transp=100)
Basically, I identified my buy, sell conditions in the code and added this at the bottom of my indicator code
Signal = buy ? 1 : sell ? -1 : 0
plot(Signal, title="🔌Connector🔌", transp=100)
Important Notes
🔥 The Strategy Template expects the value to be exactly 1 for the bullish signal , and -1 for the bearish signal
Now you can connect your indicator to the Strategy Template using the method below or that one
Step 2: Connect the connector
1) Add your updated indicator to a TradingView chart
2) Add the Strategy Template as well to the SAME chart
3) Open the Strategy Template settings and in the Data Source field select your 🔌Connector🔌 (which comes from your indicator)
From then, you should start seeing the signals and plenty of other stuff on your chart
🔥 Note that whenever you'll update your indicator values, the strategy statistics and visual on your chart will update in real-time
Settings
- Color Candles : Color the candles based on the trade state (bullish, bearish, neutral)
- Close positions at market at the end of each session : useful for everything but cryptocurrencies
- Session time ranges : Take the signals from a starting time to an ending time
- Close Direction : Choose to close only the longs, shorts, or both
- Date Filter : Take the signals from a starting date to an ending date
- Set the maximum losing streak length with an input
- Set the maximum winning streak length with an input
- Set the maximum consecutive days with a loss
- Set the maximum drawdown (in % of strategy equity)
- Set the maximum intraday loss in percentage
- Limit the number of trades per day
- Limit the number of trades per week
- Stop-loss: None or Percentage or Trailing Stop Percentage or ATR
- Take-Profit: None or Percentage or ATR
- Risk-Reward based on ATR multiple for the Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
This script is open-source so feel free to use it, and optimize it as you want
Alerts
Maybe you didn't know it but alerts are available on strategy scripts.
I added them in this template - that's cool because:
- if you don't know how to code, now you can connect your indicator and get alerts
- you have now a cool template showing you how to create alerts for strategy scripts
Source: www.tradingview.com
I hope you'll like it, use it, optimize it and most importantly....make some optimizations to your indicators thanks to this Strategy template
Special Thanks
Special thanks to @JosKodify as I borrowed a few risk management snippets from his website: kodify.net
Additional features
I thought of plenty of extra filters that I'll add later on this week on this strategy template
Best
Dave
Turtle Trade Channels Indicator TUTCILegendary trade system which proved that great traders can be made, not born.
Turtle Trade Experiment made 80% annual return for 4 years and made 150 million $
Turtle Trade trend following system is a complete opposite to the "buy low and sell high" approach.
This trend following system was taught to a group of average and normal individuals, and almost everyone turned into a profitable trader.
They used the basis logic of well known DONCHIAN CHANNELS which developed by Richard Donchian.
The main rule is "Trade an 20-day breakout and take profits when an 10-day high or low is breached ". Examples:
Buy a 20-day breakout and close the trade when price action reaches a 10-day low.
Go short a 20-day breakout and close the trade when price action reaches a 10-day high.
In this indicator,
The red line is the trading line which indicates the trend directio n:
Price bars over the trend line indicates uptrend
Price bars under the trend line means downtrend
The dotted blue line is the exit line.
Original system is:
Go long when the price High is equal to or above previous 20 day Highest price.
Go short when the price Low is equal to or below previous 20 day Lowest price.
Exit long positions when the price touches the exit line
Exit short positions when the price touches the exit line
Recommended initial stop-loss is ATR * 2 from the opening price.
Default system parameters were 20,10 and 55,20.
Original Turtle Rules:
To trade exactly like the turtles did, you need to set up two indicators representing the main and the failsafe system.
Set up the main indicator with EntryPeriod = 20 and ExitPeriod = 10 (A.k.a S1)
Set up the failsafe indicator with EntryPeriod = 55 and ExitPeriod = 20 using a different color. (A.k.a S2)
The entry strategy using S1 is as follows
Buy 20-day breakouts using S1 only if last signaled trade was a loss.
Sell 20-day breakouts using S1 only if last signaled trade was a loss.
If last signaled trade by S1 was a win, you shouldn't trade -Irregardless of the direction or if you traded last signal it or not-
The entry strategy using S2 is as follows:
Buy 55-day breakouts only if you ignored last S1 signal and the market is rallying without you
Sell 55-day breakouts only if you ignored last S1 signal and the market is pluging without you
You can Highlight the chart with provided trade signals:
Green background color when Long
Red background color when Short
No background color when flat
WARNING: TURTLE TRADE STOP or ADDING more UNITS RULES ARE NOT INCLUDED.
Author: Kıvanç Özbilgiç
Also you can show or hide trade signals with the button on the settings menu
Probability of ATR Index [racer8]Deriving the indicator:
PAI is an indicator I created that tells you the probability of current price moving a specified ATR distance over a specified number of periods into the future. It takes into account 4 variables: the ATR & the standard deviation of price, and the 2 parameters: ATR distance and # bars (time).
The formula is very complex so I will not be able to explain it without confusion arising.
What I can say is that I used integral calculus & the Taylor series to derive a formula that calculates the area under half of the normal distribution function. Thus, the formula was repeated twice in the code to derive the full probability (half + half = whole). If you can read the code, you might be wondering why the formula is so long...
The reason for this is because in Pine Script, the erf function doesn't exist. You see, the formula for normal distribution is: f(x) = (1/sqrt(2pi))*e^(-xx/2), assuming of course that the standard deviation = 1 and mu (mean) = 1. The next step is to take the integral of this formula in order to find the area under f(x). The problem is that I found the integral, F(x), of the normal distribution formula to be equal to F(x) = erf(x/sqrt(2))/2...and the erf function cannot be directly computed into Pinescript.
So I developed a solution...why not estimate the integral function? So that's exactly what I did using a technique involving the Taylor series. The Taylor series is an algebraic function that allows you to create a new function that can estimate the existing function. On a graph, the new function has the same values as the existing one, the only difference is that it uses a differnt formula, in this case, a formula that makes it possible to compute the integral. The disadvantage of using this new formula is that it is super long and if you want it to better represent the original integral over a wider range of x-values, you have to make it longer.
Signal Interpretion:
The hotter the colour, the more likely price will reach your specified distance.
The 2 values of PAI in the bottom window represent probability & average probability of your specifed distance geting hit.
Applications:
Stop loss placement---
This indicator is useful because it gives you an idea of the likelihood that a stop loss at a particular distance away from price (in ATRs) will be hit over a period of time specified. This is helpful in placing stop losses.
Options trading---
PAI can also be used in options trading. For example, you are using a strangle options strategy, and you want to make sure that price stays within the Strangle's profit range. So you only trade when PAI presents a low probability value of moving at a particular distance in ATRs over n periods.
Anyhow, I hope you guys like it. Enjoy! and hit that like button for me :)
mForex - Bollinger Bands - Pinbar scalping systemTransaction setup parameters
Time frame: M5, M15
Currency pair: Any except XAU/USD
Trading strategies
=== BUY ===
Price break out of the lower Bollinger Bands
The Pinbar reversal candlestick appears and closes the candle on the lower Bollinger Bands
Stop loss: Nearest bottom + 3-5 pips
Profit target: 10-20 pips
=== SELL ===
Price break out of the upper Bollinger Bands
The Pinbar reversal candle appeared and closed below the upper
Stop loss: Nearest peak + 3-5 pips
Profit target: 10-20 pips
* If you have any questions or suggestions for this strategy, feel free to ask us.
Noro's RiskChannel StrategyIndicator
The Donchian price channel is used. There are 2 methods available to close the position. The user can choose a method.
Wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org
Strategy #1 (stop-loss type = channel)
Old classic trading strategy, using breakouts of the Donchan price channel.
If the price is above the price channel top line, open the long position (and close the short position)
If the price is below the lower line of the price channel, open the short position (and close the long position)
It is recommended that you all use market stop orders.
Strategy #2 (stop-loss type = center)
This metod is better. This method is recommended.
The central line (red) is the middle of the Donchian price channel. Used to close any positions.
If the price is higher than the price channel top line, open the long position.
If the price is lower than the lower line of the price channel, open the short position.
If the price has crossed the central line of the channel, close any position.
It is recommended that you all use market stop orders.
Risk
There are 2 options. Risk for long positions and risk for short positions. This is the size of the possible loss. Order size depends on the possible loss and is calculated for each position.
For
BTC/USD, BTC/USDT, XBT/USD, ETH/USD, ETH/USD (need USD!)
Timeframes: 1h and length of price channel = 50 bars or 4h and length of price channel = 12
RSI and Smoothed RSI Bull Div Strategy [BigBitsIO]This strategy focuses on finding a low RSI value, then targeting a low Smoothed RSI value while the price is below the low RSI in the lookback period to trigger a buy signal.
Features Take Profit, Stop Loss, and Plot Target inputs. As well as many inputs to manage how the RSI and Smoothed RSI are configured within the strategy.
Explanation of all the inputs
Take Profit %: % change in price from position entry where strategy takes profit
Stop Loss %: % change in price from position entry where strategy stops losses
RSI Lookback Period: # of candles used to calculate RSI
Buy Below Lowest Low In RSI Divergence Lookback Target %: % change in price from lowest RSI candle in divergence lookback if set
Source of Buy Below Target Price: Source of price (close, open, high, low, etc..) used to calculated buy below %
Smoothed RSI Lookback Period: # of candles used to calculate RSI
RSI Currently Below: Value the current RSI must be below to trigger a buy
RSI Divergence Lookback Period: # of candles used to lookback for lowest RSI in the divergence lookback period
RSI Lowest In Divergence Lookback Currently Below: Require the lowest RSI in the divergence lookback to be below this value
RSI Sell Above: If take profit or stop loss is not hit, the position will sell when RSI rises above this value
Minimum SRSI Downtrend Length: Require that the downtrend length of the SRSI be this value or higher to trigger a buy
Smoothed RSI Currently Below: Value the current SRSI must be below to trigger a buy
Hancock - Pump Catcher [BitMEX] [Alerts]This is a study to the version of the strategy found here .
It generates 3 alerts:
CLOSE - Triggers to close all open positions
LONG - Triggers to open a long position
SHORT - Triggers to open a short position
Commands for alerts (without stop-loss) to get you started:
CLOSE - a=bitmex e=bitmextestnet c=position t=market
LONG - a=bitmex e=bitmextestnet b=long s=xbtusd l=5 q=99% t=market
SHORT - a=bitmex e=bitmextestnet b=short s=xbtusd l=5 q=99% t=market
I would advise including a stop-loss with your commands. These commands are for autoview and don't include a stop loss, use autoview command documentation to add stop-loss.
Happy trading
Hancock
SSL Channel BFSSL Channel Close is a great all-rounder based on 2 Simple Moving Averages, one of recent Highs, one of recent Lows.
The calculation prints a channel on the chart consisting of 2 lines.
This strategy gives a Long signal when price closes above the top of these 2 lines and a Short signal when it closes below the bottom.
Trading in choppy sideways markets can compound losses so we avoid that here by using recent ATR to determine relative volatility and refrain from trading when the background is White.
We use a basic 3% stop loss.
Charted on XBT/USD Bitmex Daily chart.
INSTRUCTIONS
Green = long
Red = short
White Background= No trade
The way I have set this strategy up is that if we get stopped out but we are still in a green or red background, we re-enter. Closing the trade only occurs on an opposing signal or if we get stopped out.
Chandelier Exit V2 by fr3762 KIVANÇChandelier Exit Version 2 with two lines Long Stop and Short Stop
There is a Chandelier exit for long positions and one for short positions. The Chandelier Exit (long) hangs three ATR values below the 22-period high. This means it rises and falls as the period high and the ATR value changes. The Chandelier Exit for short positions is placed three ATR values above the 22-period low. The spreadsheet examples show sample calculations for both.
According to the theory, traders should exit long positions at either the highest high since entry minus 3 ATRs .
Similarly traders should exit short positions at either the lowest low since entry plus 3 ATRs .
Developed by Charles Le Beau and featured in Alexander Elder's books, the Chandelier Exit sets a trailing stop-loss based on the Average True Range (ATR). The indicator is designed to keep traders in a trend and prevent an early exit as long as the trend extends. Typically, the Chandelier Exit will be above prices during a downtrend and below prices during an uptrend.
The author, Chuck LeBeau explains: It lets "... profits run in the direction of a trend while still offering some protection against any reversal in trend."
The exit stop is placed at a multiple of average true ranges from the highest high or highest close since the entry of the trade.
Chandelier Exit will rise instantly whenever new highs are reached. As the highs get higher the stop moves up but it never moves downward.
The Chandelier Exit is mostly used to set a trailing stop-loss during a trend. Trends sometimes extend further than we anticipate and the Chandelier Exit can help traders ride the trend a little longer. Even though it is mostly used for stop-losses, the Chandelier Exit can also be used as a trend tool. A break above the Chandelier Exit (long) signals strength, while a break below the Chandelier Exit (short) signals weakness. Once a new trend begins, chartists can then use the corresponding Chandelier Exit to help define this trend.
Developer: Charles Le Beau
Here's the link to a complete list of all my indicators:
tr.tradingview.com
Şimdiye kadar paylaştığım indikatörlerin tam listesi için: tr.tradingview.com
Forex Master (EUR/USD)ATTENTION:
This is a symmetrical algorithm designed only for trading EUR/USD on the 1h time frame. For other currency pairs and time frames, you need to re-calibrate the RSI-EMAs as well as the profit targets and stop losses.
BACKTEST CONDITIONS:
Initial equity = $100,000 (no leverage)
Order size = 100% of equity
Pyramiding = disabled
TRADING RULES:
Long entry = EMA20(RSI10) cross> 50
Profit limit = 50 pips
Stop loss = 50 pips
Short entry = EMA30(RSI30) cross< 50
Profit limit = 50 pips
Stop loss = 50 pips
Long entry = Short exit
Short entry = long exit
DISCLAIMER: None of my ideas and posts are investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This strategy was constructed with the benefit of hindsight and its future performance cannot be guaranteed.
Volatility Breakout System [Fixed Risk]
This is a trend-following breakout strategy designed to capture volatility expansion while filtering out low-momentum "chop." It is built on the philosophy that significant price moves are often preceded by a breakout of volatility bands (Keltner Channels) accompanied by Volume and Trend Strength (ADX).
Strategy Logic:
Volatility Breakout: The primary trigger is a candle closing outside the Keltner Channels. This indicates price is moving faster than the average range.
Trend Filter: Trades are only taken in the direction of the 200 EMA.
Momentum Filter (ADX): The ADX filter ensures we only enter when the trend strength is above a specific threshold (Default: 20). This prevents the strategy from buying tops or selling bottoms in ranging markets.
Volume Confirmation: A breakout without volume is often a fake-out. This script requires volume to be higher than the moving average.
Risk Management (Automated):
Stop Loss: Based on ATR (Average True Range) to adapt to current market volatility.
Trailing Stop: Once the trade moves in favor, a trailing stop is activated to lock in profits.
Breakeven: If price moves X% in favor, the Stop Loss is automatically moved to the entry price to protect capital.
Cooldown: Includes a safety mechanism to prevent over-trading immediately after a signal.
Backtesting Notes:
This script is set up with use_bar_magnifier=true. For accurate results, use this on higher timeframes (1H, 4H) or ensure you have a Premium account for intrabar inspection.
Inputs:
You can toggle the "Compounding" feature to test fixed cash vs. % equity growth.
Webhooks are fully configurable for alert automation.
Risk & Reward Position PlannerDescription
This script is a trade architecture tool designed to help traders calculate position sizes and visualize risk-reward ratios dynamically on the chart. It focuses on functional precision and clean aesthetics, offering two distinct visual styles: "Cyber" for modern high-tech charts and "Classic" for a traditional look.
Key Features
Interactive Setup: Upon adding the script or resetting, it prompts you to click directly on the chart to set your Entry and Stop Loss levels.
Dynamic Position Sizing: Calculates the total risk in currency (USD) based on your custom unit size.
Multi-Target Planning: Visualizes four customizable Take Profit targets based on specific RR ratios.
Cyber UI Aesthetics: Full control over colors, neon glow effects, and horizontal alignment to fit any chart layout.
Comprehensive Data: Displays price, percentage distance, currency risk, and RR ratios at a single glance.
User Guide (How to use)
To ensure the most efficient workflow, here are the essential steps for operating the tool:
Setting a New Trade (Resetting)
If you change your symbol or want to plan a completely new trade, you can clear the current setup and trigger the interactive selection again:
Right-click on the indicator in the chart OR click the three dots (...) next to the indicator name in the legend.
Select "Reset Points".
The indicator will prompt you to click two new points on the chart: first for the Entry, then for the Stop Loss.
Moving Entry and Stop Loss
Move the mouse over the line of the Entry or the StopLoss and grab the grip of the line to move it up or down. Drop it to the price you want to set.
EMA 9/15 AI Buy Sell Signal (KEWME)This strategy is primarily a Trend Following and Scalping strategy. It relies on the crossover of two Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) to identify short-term momentum shifts. The "AI" or "KEWME" part usually refers to the filtering logic added to standard EMAs to reduce false signals during choppy (sideways) markets.
1. Core Components
Fast EMA (Period 9): This tracks the most recent price data very closely. It reacts quickly to price changes.
Slow EMA (Period 15): This acts as the baseline or immediate support/resistance level. It reacts slower than the 9 EMA.
2. Buy Signal Logic (Long Entry)
A Buy signal is generated when the short-term momentum shifts upwards.
Crossover Condition: The EMA 9 (Fast) must cross ABOVE the EMA 15 (Slow).
Candle Confirmation: The candle causing the crossover should ideally close green (bullish) and above both EMA lines.
AI/Filter Logic:
Slope Check: The "AI" logic checks if the slope of the EMA 15 is pointing up. If the lines are flat (horizontal), the signal is often ignored to avoid sideways markets.
Volume: There should be higher than average volume during the crossover to confirm the strength of the move.
Trader's Action: Enter a Buy position immediately after the candle closes.
3. Sell Signal Logic (Short Entry)
A Sell signal is generated when the short-term momentum shifts downwards.
Crossunder Condition: The EMA 9 (Fast) must cross BELOW the EMA 15 (Slow).
Candle Confirmation: The candle causing the crossover should ideally close red (bearish) and below both EMA lines.
AI/Filter Logic:
Slope Check: The "AI" logic checks if the slope of the EMA 15 is pointing down.
Volume: Selling pressure (volume) should be visible.
Trader's Action: Enter a Sell position immediately after the candle closes.
4. The "AI" filtering (Why it is different from basic EMA)
Standard EMA crossovers often fail in "Choppy Markets" (when price moves up and down within a small range), causing losses. The KEWME/AI version usually adds these extra rules:
Range Filter: If the distance between EMA 9 and EMA 15 is very small (the lines are hugging each other), the AI suppresses the signal. It waits for the lines to "fan out" or separate.
Trend Alignment: It might check a higher timeframe (like 200 EMA). If the price is above the 200 EMA, it might only show Buy signals and hide Sell signals (Trend Filtering).
5. Exit Strategy (Stop Loss & Target)
Stop Loss (SL):
For Buy: Just below the recent Swing Low or below the EMA 15.
For Sell: Just above the recent Swing High or above the EMA 15.
Take Profit (TP): usually taken when the EMAs cross back in the opposite direction, or at a 1:1.5 Risk-Reward ratio.
Multi-Filter Profit MaximizerDescription : This script is a trend-following system designed to maximize profits by capturing extended trends while filtering out market noise. It integrates four core components:
SuperTrend (Customized): Acts as a dynamic trailing stop and trend baseline.
ADX Filter: Ensures signals only occur during active volatility to avoid choppy markets.
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): Validates the price movement with actual volume flow.
Stochastic Momentum: Pinpoints high-probability entry entries within the trend.
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How to Use This Indicator (Profit Maximization Manual)
This indicator is designed to prioritize **“win rate” and “price range”** over the number of entries.
Market Environment Recognition (Background & Lines):
Green background & green line: An uptrend. Focus solely on long positions.
Red background & red line: A downtrend. Focus solely on short positions.
EMA 200 (Orange Line): The iron rule is to go long if the candlestick is above this line, and short if it's below.
Entry (BUY / SELL Signals):
Enter when the BUY or SELL label appears.
This is the moment when the “trend direction,” “momentum via ADX,” “fund flow via CVD,” and “timing via Stochastic” all align perfectly.
Profit Maximization Exit (Most Critical):
Stop Loss (SL): Exit immediately if the candle body breaks below the green (or red) SuperTrend line right after entry. No hesitation.
Take Profit (TP):
Method A (Trend Riding): Hold until the SuperTrend line changes color. If a major trend emerges, this can yield tremendous profits.
Method B (Conservative Approach): Take half the profit at roughly a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, then hold the remainder aligned with the SuperTrend.
Why This is “The Best”
Many indicators get whipped back and forth in range-bound markets, spitting out profits. It's coded to generate absolutely no signals when ADX < 20 (weak market). Furthermore, using SuperTrend as the stop-loss line forces a structure that comes closest to the Holy Grail of trading: **“Small losses, unlimited profits as long as the trend continues.”**
UT Bot Alerts with R-Targets & Results< DONE BY RM ALOWAIS >
Indicator Overview
This indicator provides rule-based BUY and SELL signals with automatic risk management levels.
Each trade setup includes a predefined Stop Loss and up to three Take Profit targets (TP1, TP2, TP3), allowing traders to manage risk and scale exits systematically.
How It Works
BUY and SELL signals are generated based on internal market conditions.
Each signal plots:
Entry point
Stop Loss (SL)
Take Profit levels (TP1, TP2, TP3)
After price action completes, the indicator displays the actual result of the trade:
Result: TP1 / TP2 / TP3 / SL
Exit labels may appear when a trade is closed early due to invalidation or opposite conditions.
Key Features
Non-repainting signals
Built-in risk-to-reward structure
Visual trade tracking with clear outcomes
Suitable for intraday and swing trading
Works on multiple markets and timeframes
Usage Notes
This indicator is a decision-support tool, not financial advice.
Best results are achieved when used with proper risk management and higher-timeframe confirmation.
Performance may vary depending on market conditions (trend vs range).
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only.
The author is not responsible for any financial losses. Always test and validate before using in live trading.
Aggro-15min Pro V4.2 [SMA200 + Vortex] (v6 Ready)🚀 Aggro-15min Pro
Aggro-15min Pro is a professional-grade algorithmic strategy optimized for the 15-minute timeframe. It combines structural trend analysis with aggressive momentum tracking to capture high-probability swings while filtering out market noise.
🛠️ How the Strategy Works
1. Structural Trend (The "Guardrail")
200 SMA: The strategy identifies the primary market direction. It only buys above the 200 SMA and only sells below it, ensuring you stay on the side of institutional flow.
2. Execution Trigger (The "Signal")
EMA Cross (9/50): A crossover of the 9-period Fast EMA and 50-period Slow EMA triggers the entry, identifying a confirmed shift in medium-term momentum.
3. Momentum Engine (The "Vortex")
Vortex Indicator (VI): Validates the "thrust" behind the move.
Dynamic Exit: Includes a "Vortex Reverse" logic that closes trades early if the directional energy fades, preserving capital before a full reversal occurs.
4. Risk & Volatility
ADX Filter: Prevents entries during low-volatility "sideways" periods.
ATR Risk Management: Uses the Average True Range to set dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit levels that adapt to current market volatility.
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# 📂 STRATEGY PACKAGE: AGGRO-15MIN PRO
**Version:** 4.2 (Pine Script v6 Ready)
**Asset Class:** Crypto, Forex, Indices
**Timeframe:** 15 Minutes
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## 📘 1. OPERATIONS MANUAL (English)
### 🟢 Strategy Overview
Aggro-15min Pro is a momentum-based trend-following system. It uses a "Triple-Filter" logic to ensure that trades are only taken when long-term trend, medium-term momentum, and short-term volatility are perfectly aligned.
### 🟢 Technical Indicators Setup
* **Structural Filter:** 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
* **Trigger Engine:** 9-period & 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
* **Momentum Engine:** 14-period Vortex Indicator (VI).
* **Strength Filter:** 14-period Average Directional Index (ADX).
* **Volatility/Exits:** 14-period Average True Range (ATR).
### 🟢 Entry Checklist
#### LONG Position:
1. **Trend:** Price is **ABOVE** the 200 SMA.
2. **Trigger:** 9 EMA crosses **ABOVE** the 50 EMA.
3. **Vortex:** VIP (Positive) is **ABOVE** VIM (Negative).
4. **Strength:** ADX is **ABOVE** 20.
#### SHORT Position:
1. **Trend:** Price is **BELOW** the 200 SMA.
2. **Trigger:** 9 EMA crosses **BELOW** the 50 EMA.
3. **Vortex:** VIM (Negative) is **ABOVE** VIP (Positive).
4. **Strength:** ADX is **ABOVE** 20.
### 🟢 Exit Management
* **Take Profit (TP):** $3.0 \times ATR$ (Risk/Reward 1:2).
* **Stop Loss (SL):** $1.5 \times ATR$.
* **Dynamic Exit:** If the Vortex lines cross in the opposite direction (e.g., VIM > VIP during a Long), the strategy closes the position immediately to lock in profits or minimize loss.
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HMA Trend Scalper V1[wjdtks255]
Overview
This indicator is a high-performance trend-following system optimized for crypto futures trading. It provides clear entry signals and dynamic, real-time risk management tools to help traders stay on the right side of the market.
Key Features
Dynamic Trend Tracking: Uses a specialized HMA (Hull Moving Average) to filter market noise and identify the core trend.
Real-time TP/SL Extension: Unlike static indicators, the Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) lines extend candle-by-candle along with the price action.
Clean Chart UI: Lines only exist from the entry point to the current candle, preventing chart clutter.
Automatic Completion: Once the price hits a target, the line stops extending and marks the result (Target Hit or Stop Out).
Trading Strategy (How to Trade)
1. Long Entry (🚀 LONG)
Condition: The price must be above the trend line, and a breakout of the recent 5-candle high must occur with significant volume.
Action: Enter a Long position when the "🚀 LONG" label appears.
Exit: Hold until the price reaches the Cyan (Aqua) TP line or hits the Yellow SL line.
2. Short Entry (💀 SHORT)
Condition: The price must be below the trend line, and a breakdown of the recent 5-candle low must occur with significant volume.
Action: Enter a Short position when the "💀 SHORT" label appears.
Exit: Hold until the price reaches the Cyan (Aqua) TP line or hits the Yellow SL line.
3. Risk Management
Stop Loss: The indicator automatically calculates the optimal SL based on recent volatility (ATR) and swing points.
Take Profit: The TP is set at a calculated ratio to ensure a positive risk-to-reward setup.
Settings
Trend Sensitivity: Adjust the HMA length to match your preferred timeframe (Scalping vs. Swing).
Volume Multiplier: Filter out weak moves by increasing the volume breakout requirement.
Custom Styles: Fully customize line colors, widths, and styles (Solid, Dashed, Dotted) in the settings menu.
Global Sovereign Spread MonitorIn the summer of 2011, the yield on Italian government bonds rose dramatically while German Bund yields fell to historic lows. This divergence, measured as the BTP-Bund spread, reached nearly 550 basis points in November of that year, signaling what would become the most severe test of the European monetary union since its inception. Portfolio managers who monitored this spread had days, sometimes weeks, of advance warning before equity markets crashed. Those who ignored it suffered significant losses.
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor is built on a simple but powerful observation that has been validated repeatedly in academic literature: sovereign bond spreads contain forward-looking information about systemic risk that is not fully reflected in equity prices (Longstaff et al., 2011). When investors demand higher yields to hold peripheral government debt relative to safe-haven bonds, they are expressing a view about credit risk, liquidity conditions, and the probability of systemic stress. This information, when properly analyzed, provides actionable signals for traders across all asset classes.
The Science of Sovereign Spreads
The academic study of government bond yield differentials began in earnest following the creation of the European Monetary Union. Codogno, Favero and Missale (2003) published what remains one of the foundational papers in this field, examining why yields on government bonds within a currency union should differ at all. Their analysis, published in Economic Policy, identified two primary drivers: credit risk and liquidity. Countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios and weaker fiscal positions commanded higher yields, but importantly, these spreads widened dramatically during periods of market stress even when fundamentals had not changed significantly.
This observation led to a crucial insight that Favero, Pagano and von Thadden (2010) explored in depth in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. They found that liquidity effects can amplify credit risk during stress periods, creating a feedback loop where rising spreads reduce liquidity, which in turn pushes spreads even higher. This dynamic explains why sovereign spreads often move in non-linear fashion, remaining stable for extended periods before suddenly widening rapidly.
Longstaff, Pan, Pedersen and Singleton (2011) extended this research in their American Economic Review paper by examining the relationship between sovereign credit default swap spreads and bond spreads across multiple countries. Their key finding was that a significant portion of sovereign credit risk is driven by global factors rather than country-specific fundamentals. This means that when spreads widen in Italy, it often reflects broader risk aversion that will eventually affect other asset classes including equities and corporate bonds.
The practical implication of this research is clear: sovereign spreads function as a leading indicator for systemic risk. Aizenman, Hutchison and Jinjarak (2013) confirmed this in their analysis of European sovereign debt default probabilities, finding that spread movements preceded rating downgrades and provided earlier warning signals than traditional fundamental analysis.
How the Indicator Works
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor translates these academic findings into a systematic framework for monitoring credit conditions. The indicator calculates yield differentials between peripheral government bonds and German Bunds, which serve as the benchmark safe-haven asset in European markets. Italian ten-year yields minus German ten-year yields produce the BTP-Bund spread, the single most important metric for Eurozone stress. Spanish yields minus German yields produce the Bonos-Bund spread, providing a secondary confirmation signal. The transatlantic US-Bund spread captures divergence between the two major safe-haven markets.
Raw spreads are converted to Z-scores, which measure how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical average over the lookback period. This normalization is essential because absolute spread levels vary over time with interest rate cycles and structural changes in sovereign debt markets. A spread of 150 basis points might have been concerning in 2007 but entirely normal in 2023 following the European debt crisis and subsequent ECB interventions.
The composite index combines these individual Z-scores using weights that reflect the relative importance of each spread for global risk assessment. Italy receives the highest weight because it represents the third-largest sovereign bond market globally and any Italian debt crisis would have systemic implications for the entire Eurozone. Spain provides confirmation of peripheral stress, while the US-Bund spread captures flight-to-quality dynamics between the two primary safe-haven markets.
Regime classification transforms the continuous Z-score into discrete states that correspond to different market environments. The Stress regime indicates that spreads have widened to levels historically associated with crisis periods. The Elevated regime signals rising risk aversion that warrants increased attention. Normal conditions represent typical spread behavior, while the Calm regime may actually signal complacency and potential mean-reversion opportunities.
Retail Trader Applications
For individual traders without access to institutional research teams, the Global Sovereign Spread Monitor provides a window into the macro environment that typically remains opaque. The most immediate application is risk management for equity positions.
Consider a trader holding a diversified portfolio of European stocks. When the composite Z-score rises above 1.0 and enters the Elevated regime, historical data suggests an increased probability of equity market drawdowns in the coming days to weeks. This does not mean the trader must immediately liquidate all positions, but it does suggest reducing position sizes, tightening stop-losses, or adding hedges such as put options or inverse ETFs.
The BTP-Bund spread specifically provides actionable information for anyone trading EUR/USD or European equity indices. Research by De Grauwe and Ji (2013) demonstrated that sovereign spreads and currency movements are closely linked during stress periods. When the BTP-Bund spread widens sharply, the Euro typically weakens against the Dollar as investors question the sustainability of the monetary union. A retail forex trader can use the indicator to time entries into EUR/USD short positions or to exit long positions before spread-driven selloffs occur.
The regime classification system simplifies decision-making for traders who cannot constantly monitor multiple data feeds. When the dashboard displays Stress, it is time to adopt a defensive posture regardless of what individual stock charts might suggest. When it displays Calm, the trader knows that risk appetite is elevated across institutional markets, which typically supports equity prices but also means that any negative catalyst could trigger a sharp reversal.
Mean-reversion signals provide opportunities for more active traders. When spreads reach extreme levels in either direction, they tend to revert toward their historical average. A Z-score above 2.0 that begins declining suggests professional investors are starting to buy peripheral debt again, which historically precedes broader risk-on behavior. A Z-score below minus 1.0 that starts rising may indicate that complacency is ending and risk-off positioning is beginning.
The key for retail traders is to use the indicator as a filter rather than a primary signal generator. If technical analysis suggests a long entry in European stocks, check the sovereign spread regime first. If spreads are elevated or rising, the technical setup becomes higher risk. If spreads are stable or compressing, the technical signal has a higher probability of success.
Professional Applications
Institutional investors use sovereign spread analysis in more sophisticated ways that go beyond simple risk filtering. Systematic macro funds incorporate spread data into quantitative models that generate trading signals across multiple asset classes simultaneously.
Portfolio managers at large asset allocators use sovereign spreads to make strategic allocation decisions. When the composite Z-score trends higher over several weeks, they reduce exposure to peripheral European equities and bonds while increasing allocations to German Bunds, US Treasuries, and other safe-haven assets. This rotation often happens before explicit risk-off signals appear in equity markets, giving these investors a performance advantage.
Fixed income specialists at banks and hedge funds use sovereign spreads for relative value trades. When the BTP-Bund spread widens to historically elevated levels but fundamentals have not deteriorated proportionally, they may go long Italian government bonds and short German Bunds, betting on mean reversion. These trades require careful risk management because spreads can widen further before reversing, but when properly sized they offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Risk managers at financial institutions use sovereign spread monitoring as an input to Value-at-Risk models and stress testing frameworks. Elevated spreads indicate higher correlation among risk assets, which means diversification benefits are reduced precisely when they are needed most. This information feeds into position sizing decisions across the entire trading book.
Currency traders at proprietary trading firms incorporate sovereign spreads into their EUR/USD and EUR/CHF models. The relationship between the BTP-Bund spread and EUR weakness is well-documented in academic literature and provides a systematic edge when combined with other factors such as interest rate differentials and positioning data.
Central bank watchers use sovereign spreads to anticipate policy responses. The European Central Bank has demonstrated repeatedly that it will intervene when spreads reach levels that threaten financial stability, most notably through the Outright Monetary Transactions program announced in 2012 and the Transmission Protection Instrument introduced in 2022. Understanding spread dynamics helps investors anticipate these interventions and position accordingly.
Interpreting the Dashboard
The statistics panel provides real-time information that supports both quick assessments and deeper analysis. The composite Z-score is the primary metric, representing the weighted average of all spread Z-scores. Values above zero indicate spreads are wider than their historical average, while values below zero indicate compression. The magnitude matters: a reading of 0.5 suggests modestly elevated stress, while 2.0 or higher indicates conditions similar to historical crisis periods.
The regime classification translates the Z-score into actionable categories. Stress should trigger immediate review of risk exposure and consideration of hedges. Elevated warrants increased vigilance and potentially reduced position sizes. Normal indicates no immediate concerns from sovereign markets. Calm suggests risk appetite may be elevated, which supports risk assets but also creates potential for sharp reversals if sentiment changes.
The percentile ranking provides historical context by showing where the current Z-score falls within its distribution over the lookback period. A reading of 90 percent means spreads are wider than they have been 90 percent of the time over the past year, which is significant even if the absolute Z-score is not extreme. This metric helps identify when spreads are creeping higher before they reach official stress thresholds.
Momentum indicates whether spreads are widening or compressing. Rising momentum during elevated spread conditions is particularly concerning because it suggests stress is accelerating. Falling momentum during stress suggests the worst may be past and mean reversion could be beginning.
Individual spread readings allow traders to identify which component is driving the composite signal. If the BTP-Bund spread is elevated but Bonos-Bund remains normal, the stress may be Italy-specific rather than systemic. If all spreads are widening together, the signal reflects broader flight-to-quality that affects all risk assets.
The bias indicator provides a simple summary for traders who need quick guidance. Risk-Off means spreads indicate defensive positioning is appropriate. Risk-On means spread conditions support risk-taking. Neutral means spreads provide no clear directional signal.
Limitations and Risk Factors
No indicator provides perfect signals, and sovereign spread analysis has specific limitations that users must understand. The European Central Bank has demonstrated its willingness to intervene in sovereign bond markets when spreads threaten financial stability. The Transmission Protection Instrument announced in 2022 specifically targets situations where spreads widen beyond levels justified by fundamentals. This creates a floor under peripheral bond prices and means that extremely elevated spreads may not persist as long as historical patterns would suggest.
Political events can cause sudden spread movements that are impossible to anticipate. Elections, government formation crises, and policy announcements can move spreads by 50 basis points or more in a single session. The indicator will reflect these moves but cannot predict them.
Liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets can temporarily distort spread readings, particularly around quarter-end and year-end when banks adjust their balance sheets. These technical factors can cause spread widening or compression that does not reflect fundamental credit risk.
The relationship between sovereign spreads and other asset classes is not constant over time. During some periods, spread movements lead equity moves by several days. During others, both markets move simultaneously. The indicator provides valuable information about credit conditions, but users should not expect mechanical relationships between spread signals and subsequent price moves in other markets.
Conclusion
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor represents a systematic application of academic research on sovereign credit risk to practical trading decisions. The indicator monitors yield differentials between peripheral and safe-haven government bonds, normalizes these spreads using statistical methods, and classifies market conditions into regimes that correspond to different risk environments.
For retail traders, the indicator provides risk management information that was previously available only to institutional investors with access to Bloomberg terminals and dedicated research teams. By checking the sovereign spread regime before executing trades, individual investors can avoid taking excessive risk during periods of elevated credit stress.
For professional investors, the indicator offers a standardized framework for monitoring sovereign credit conditions that can be integrated into broader macro models and risk management systems. The real-time calculation of Z-scores, regime classifications, and component spreads provides the inputs needed for systematic trading strategies.
The academic foundation is robust, built on peer-reviewed research published in top finance and economics journals over the past two decades. The practical applications have been validated through multiple market cycles including the European debt crisis of 2011-2012, the COVID-19 shock of 2020, and the rate normalization stress of 2022.
Sovereign spreads will continue to provide valuable forward-looking information about systemic risk for as long as credit conditions vary across countries and investors respond rationally to changes in default probabilities. The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor makes this information accessible and actionable for traders at all levels of sophistication.
References
Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. and Jinjarak, Y. (2013) What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 37-59.
Codogno, L., Favero, C. and Missale, A. (2003) Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds. Economic Policy, 18(37), pp. 503-532.
De Grauwe, P. and Ji, Y. (2013) Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 15-36.
Favero, C., Pagano, M. and von Thadden, E.L. (2010) How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(1), pp. 107-134.
Longstaff, F.A., Pan, J., Pedersen, L.H. and Singleton, K.J. (2011) How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk? American Economic Review, 101(6), pp. 2191-2212.
Manganelli, S. and Wolswijk, G. (2009) What Drives Spreads in the Euro Area Government Bond Market? Economic Policy, 24(58), pp. 191-240.
Arghyrou, M.G. and Kontonikas, A. (2012) The EMU Sovereign-Debt Crisis: Fundamentals, Expectations and Contagion. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(4), pp. 658-677.
Daytrading Suite v6.4: Neon TPO + FVG + IB Lines (Stable)Here is the complete **Trading Manual & Strategy Guide** for the **Master Daytrading Suite (Neon + IB Edition)**.
This guide explains exactly **when** to trade and **how** to execute trades using the tools in the script.
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# 📘 MASTER TRADING MANUAL (Neon + IB)
### 1. THE BASICS
* **Best Assets:** BTCUSDT & ETHUSDT (Futures).
* **Best Timeframe:** 5 Minutes (Entry) / 15 Minutes (Trend).
* **Key Session:** New York Session (High Volatility).
* **Golden Rule:** Never go **LONG** inside a Red Supply Zone. Never go **SHORT** inside a Green Demand Zone.
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### 2. THE INDICATORS (Legend)
| Indicator | Color | Function | How to use |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Supply Zone** | 🟥 **Red Box** | Resistance | Look for Short setups here. |
| **Demand Zone** | 🟩 **Green Box** | Support | Look for Long setups here. |
| **Golden Pocket** | 🟧 **Orange** | Retracement | The "Sweet Spot" for trend entries (Fib 0.618). |
| **VWAP** | 🔵 **Blue Line** | Trend Anchor | Price > VWAP = Bullish. Price < VWAP = Bearish. |
| **Initial Balance (IB)** | 🟨 **Yellow Box** | Opening Range | Breakout above = Bullish. Breakdown below = Bearish. |
| **FVG (Gap)** | 🟩/🟥 **Tiny Box** | Trigger | **Green FVG** = Entry Signal for Longs. **Red FVG** = Entry Signal for Shorts. |
---
### 3. STRATEGY A: The Trend Pullback (High Win Rate)
*Use this when the market is trending smoothly.*
#### ✅ HOW TO ENTER A LONG (BUY) POSITION
1. **Trend Check:** Price is trading **ABOVE** the VWAP (Blue Line) and EMA 9 (Yellow Line).
2. **The Wait:** Wait for the price to drop back down (pullback).
3. **The Zone:** Price touches the **Green Demand Zone** OR the **Orange Golden Pocket**.
4. **The Trigger:** A **Green FVG Box** appears on the 5-minute chart.
5. **Execution:** Enter Long. Stop Loss below the recent low. Take Profit at the next Red Zone.
#### 🔻 HOW TO ENTER A SHORT (SELL) POSITION
1. **Trend Check:** Price is trading **BELOW** the VWAP (Blue Line) and EMA 9 (Yellow Line).
2. **The Wait:** Wait for the price to rally up (pullback).
3. **The Zone:** Price touches the **Red Supply Zone** OR the **Orange Golden Pocket**.
4. **The Trigger:** A **Red FVG Box** appears on the 5-minute chart.
5. **Execution:** Enter Short. Stop Loss above the recent high. Take Profit at the next Green Zone.
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### 4. STRATEGY B: The IB Breakout (Volatility)
*Use this specifically after the first hour of the New York Session (approx. 10:30 NY time).*
* **The Setup:** Look at the **Yellow Box (Initial Balance)** which marks the high/low of the first hour.
* **Bullish Breakout:** If a candle closes **above** the Yellow Box + Price is above VWAP → **Go Long**.
* **Bearish Breakdown:** If a candle closes **below** the Yellow Box + Price is below VWAP → **Go Short**.
* **The Trap (Fakeout):** If price breaks out but immediately falls back inside the Yellow Box, close the trade immediately.
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### 5. DAILY ROUTINE (Checklist)
1. **Open TradingView:** Switch to the **15m Chart**.
2. **Check Context:** Where are we? Are we near a big Red Box (Supply) or Green Box (Demand)?
3. **Check Trend:** Is price above or below the Blue VWAP line?
4. **Wait for the Open:** Let the first hour of New York pass (to form the Yellow IB Box).
5. **Set Alerts:** Right-click the chart and set alerts for "IB Breakout" or "Golden Pocket".
6. **Execute:** Switch to the **5m Chart** to find your entry trigger (FVG).
---
### 6. RISK MANAGEMENT RULES
* **Stop Loss:** NEVER trade without one. Place it just outside the FVG box or the Zone.
* **Risk per Trade:** 1% to 2% of your account maximum.
* **No Trade Zone:** If the price is "chopping" (moving sideways) inside the Yellow IB Box, **do not trade**. Wait for a breakout.
